RICK 16? – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:   I shy away from quoting Dick Morris, whose political prediction record is less than stellar.  But he just wrote a column on the prospects of Rick Perry for 2016 that I thought was particularly good.  I was at a meeting yesterday and was surprised at the amount of talk about Perry, who makes regular trips to New York these days.  From The Hill: 

That leaves Rick Perry. He’s acceptable to Latinos, based on his Texas record. He draws strong Tea Party support without being defined by it. A Southerner, he is clearly ready to play on the national stage. A big state governor, his record on jobs has only gotten better. Perry can’t be dismissed.

Will his debate brainlock disqualify him? Not if he doesn’t repeat it. Bill Clinton recovered from a disastrous 1988 convention speech. He’s probably had enough time to recover from his dismissal of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” in his book.

But Perry has to develop a truly national perspective to win. He can’t forever be repeating “in the state of Texas” before each line.

He needs to know more about issues other than energy. In 2012, he showed the same lack of depth and laziness in issue preparation as Sarah Palin did in 2008, but he wasn’t caught as easily because he’s a man.

In competing for the center of the Republican Party, Perry would face Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.

Bush, the former Florida governor, sure doesn’t sound like he’s running. If he did, he could win. People would blanch at a Bush-Clinton race, but if the Democrats are going to nominate Hillary, the Republicans shouldn’t feel bad about tapping Jeb. But Bush sure doesn’t seem to have the heart for it.

Christie thinks we will all forgive his virtual endorsement of President Obama in the last days of the 2012 contest, but we won’t.

And he’s going to have a hard time surviving his Bridgegate and Port Authority corruption scandals.

Ryan underwhelmed in 2012 as the vice presidential candidate, only breaking even in the Biden debate, and has scarred himself by becoming the poster boy for Medicare vouchers.

Who are the other options? Ted Cruz and Rand Paul will lock up the Tea Party and the libertarian wings in the early going, but the Republican Party does not usually cotton to insurgents. Marco Rubio has the potential to move to the establishment center and compete, but he has disappointed at crucial times to date.

Scott Walker, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley and some others might emerge as national candidates. Walker, in particular, is interesting because he has been, hands down, the best Republican governor in recent years. He slew the teachers union, freed the schools, funded education, cut taxes, created jobs and survived repeated political assassination attempts. He has the courage, fiber and vision it would take.

But look through the lens of history. Republicans don’t like to take chances. They want their candidates to have served their apprenticeship as losers. The Republican voters are agoraphobic, fearful of new situations and people. It takes them a while to get used to new candidates, so those who have run once and learned their lessons have great appeal.

So keep your eye on Perry.

COMMENT:  And I think we should.  But Perry will be tested early if he decides to run.  As Morris said, he's got to know his stuff this time, and not forget his lines, as he did disastrously in 2012.  He has a great record.  But he's got to be a great candidate.

April 30,  2014